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Consumer retail spending holds steady as recession worries drag on

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Shopdog analyzed spending data from the Census to illustrate how American consumers are holding up under continued inflation.  
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Spending for in-person and online goods and services has moderated over the past year after seeing outsized growth during the early years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The decline in sales growth has forced some retailers to roll out discounts. Others warn sales could drop further as consumers feel the squeeze of college debt payments returning this fall and still-rising prices for everything from weekly groceries to back-to-school clothing.

Shopdog analyzed spending data from the Census to illustrate consumers’ reaction to inflated prices and higher borrowing costs in 2023.

Retail sales data can offer broad inferences about the spending habits of consumers in the U.S. economy and can serve as an indicator of economic health. Business leaders and Federal Reserve officials watch the data closely for signs that consumers could be struggling with their finances.

The COVID-19 pandemic and job loss caused the economy to contract rapidly and enter a recession, briefly hurting retail sales. With the help of stimulus checks and enhanced unemployment payments, Americans bounced back—and bought a ton of stuff: sporting goods, electronics, furniture, and new homes. And as COVID-19 vaccines rolled out, consumers shifted to spending on previously delayed travel.

Throughout 2021, a flood of stimulus money and rapidly rising profits contributed to a red-hot economy in which prices were rising faster than at any time since the 1980s. By 2022, Federal Reserve officials began raising interest rates in an attempt to cool down rising prices. So far in 2023, growth in sales has started to slow as consumers muddle through an increasingly expensive world.


A line chart with two trend lines. At the bottom, e-commerce sales as a portion of overall retail sales show a slight growth trend. At the top of the chart, a line for retail spending in store shows sales growth plateauing.

Dom DiFurio // Shopdog

Pandemic boom in the rearview as inflation erodes spending power

Census data shows retail sales growth has slowed since federal officials began taking their fight against inflation seriously last summer. 

Overall inflation was still elevated at 3.2% year over year in July, stubbornly higher than the 2% goal Federal Reserve officials want to achieve. The Fed began raising its benchmark interest rates in April 2022 to make it more expensive for consumers and businesses to borrow money for things like new business, a home mortgage, or a new vehicle. 

When the Fed raises its interest rates, banks follow. A monetary policy like this aims to slow down an economy flush with cash so prices grow slower. It’s a policy experts argue causes necessary pain for consumers in the short term to avoid perpetual inflation in the long term.

So far, the Fed has seen inflation cool from a modern high of 9% last year, but in late August, officials said they need to see it decrease further before they pause rate hikes.

A line chart showing ecommerce sales as a percentage of overall retail sales. The trend line spikes above 15% in 2020, then comes down a few percentage points in the following years, returning to upward growth in 2023.

Dom DiFurio // Shopdog

Online retail spending is up 7.5% over summer 2022

Even as overall spending flattens, Americans’ online shopping habits have reverted to pre-pandemic trends. Consumer spending has steadily shifted from retail to e-commerce since Jeff Bezos had the idea to sell books online in 1994. That steady growth got a big boost in 2020 when online shopping often became the only way to spend money.

After correcting downward as shoppers ventured out of their homes, the portion of retail sales happening online is growing again at pre-pandemic rates despite the overall challenges faced by consumers.

However, signs are emerging from retailers that the typical American may be unable to keep spending on goods and services the same way in the second half of 2023.

A couple of shoppers inside a Dick's Sporting Goods store.

QualityHD // Shutterstock

Stalled spending growth is cold comfort for nervous small retailers

Retail giant Walmart is raising its profit expectation through the end of the year, reporting gains in e-commerce sales. However, their projections starkly contrast with others in the retail space that are beginning to report gloomy forecasts.

Big sportswear retailers such as Dick’s Sporting Goods, which usually benefit from a surge in sales during back-to-school season, have cut their profit expectations for the rest of the year.

And optimism is low, according to a 2022 industry report by the National Federation of Independent Businesses, which represents the interests of America’s small businesses. Most small businesses believe the country is already in a recession despite no official call by the National Bureau of Economic Research, and they expect lower sales through the end of the year.

Story editing by Ashleigh Graf. Copy editing by Kristen Wegrzyn.

This story originally appeared on Shopdog and was produced and
distributed in partnership with Stacker Studio.

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mesh conference to explore animal ‘de-extinction’ and how Canada’s digital policy has gone off the rails

Today the mesh conference announced that biotech leader Ben Lamm and prominent lawyer Michael Geist will keynote at the Dec 6-7 event in Toronto.

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Ben Lamm is CEO of Colossal
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On December 6-7, all innovation roads lead to the mesh conference in Toronto, and today the event unveiled more detail on two featured keynote speakers.

Joining the mesh conference as a keynote speaker is Colossal CEO, Ben Lamm. Known for his pioneering work at the intersection of biotechnology and conservation, Lamm’s presence promises to ignite discussions and offer unparalleled insights into the future of biotech, de-extinction, and environmental sustainability. 

Also joining mesh as a keynote speaker is Dr. Michael Geist, a prominent lawyer and leading authority on technology law and policy. Geist has been a regular columnist on digital policy with leading publications such as the Globe and Mail and Toronto Star and is the creator and host of Law Bytes, one of Canada’s top technology podcasts. 

With a focus on four threads — business, media and technology, society, and marketing — the mesh conference hosts Canadian digital transformation leaders who will meet to connect, share, and inspire others to think about changing the way we think, organize, operate and behave.

Ben Lamm (left) and George Church started "de-extinction" company, Colossal
Ben Lamm (left) and George Church started “de-extinction” company, Colossal. – Image courtesy Colossal

“De-extinction” is vital to fighting climate change

Colossal Biosciences’ Ben Lamm will join the mesh conference for a conversation about the work his company is doing to bring back the woolly mammoth, the Tasmanian tiger, and the dodo bird.

Lamm is a serial entrepreneur who started Colossal in 2021 with George Church, a biologist at Harvard Medical School. The company is working to advance the field of species de-extinction in order to bring back biodiversity and reintroduce species to Earth to help fight climate change.

Colossal’s work comes at a time when the world has entered the sixth extinction crisis, where the loss of species can have devastating effects on biodiversity that is crucial to human survival.

Image courtesy Colossal

Colossal is building technology to stop the extinction process, secure animal DNA, and reverse environmental damage created by humans.

“In addition to bringing back ancient extinct species like the woolly mammoth, we will be able to leverage our technologies to help preserve critically endangered species that are on the verge of extinction and restore animals where humankind had a hand in their demise,” Lamm says.

De-extinction reverses plant and animal extinction by creating new proxy versions of these lost species. By bringing back extinct animals, the goal is to restore ecosystems that have been lost. By bringing back extinct animals, the goal is to restore ecosystems that have been lost, while increasing biodiversity and restoring ecosystem resilience.

Learn more about Colossal: 

Canada’s digital policy has gone off the rails

Dr. Michael Geist will join the mesh conference for a keynote conversation on Canada’s digital policy where he will share his views on why he thinks it’s gone off the rails, and advice about what engaged communities should be doing.

Geist is the Canada Research Chair in Internet and e-Commerce Law, a Faculty member at the Centre for Law, Technology and Society, and a Professor at the University of Ottawa.

Michael Geist
Photo courtesy Dr. Michael Geist

At the mesh conference, Geist will lead an engaging discussion that will delve into the current landscape of Canadian digital policy, focusing on the repercussions of the Online News Act, known commonly as Bill C-18. The removal of Canadian news from major platforms like Facebook and Instagram by Meta, as well as the anticipated response from Google involving a ban on Canadian news in search results, will be explored in depth.

Geist, a recognized authority in technology law and policy, will also shed light on the implications and nuances of the Online Streaming Act, formerly known as Bill C-11 that imposes new rules on certain online streaming services.

This session aims to foster a comprehensive understanding of the challenges posed by evolving digital policies in Canada and to propose actionable steps for proactive engagement and advocacy. 

Two weeks until we mesh

The mesh conference is a two-day event that will feature a series of inspiring talks, interactive workshops, and panel discussions that delve into how technology and innovation can be used to augment human capabilities to improve our world.

Attendees will gain insights into the latest digital trends, emerging technologies, and strategies for achieving human-centered digital transformation.

The mesh conference is back in Toronto on December 6-7 after relaunching earlier this year in Calgary where more than 200 people met to connect, share, and inspire.

The mesh conference recently announced it will be donating all proceeds from the event to Second Harvest, Canada’s largest food rescue organization and leader in perishable food redistribution.
See more speakers and get your tickets at meshconference.com

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Fintech competition a cure for Canada’s financial inequality and an over-protected banking industry

Koho CEO Daniel Eberhard and Canadian Senator Colin Deacon chat aboutCanada’s banking industry and fintech solutions at Elevate Festival.

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Regulated banks offer security — you know your money’s safe there. 

But overprotection in the Canadian banking industry has negative effects, including:

  • Excessive credit requirements 
  • High-income Canadians ($150,000 salaries) still living paycheque to paycheque
  • Arbitrary events that lower credit scores, like changing credit cards

Daniel Eberhard and Senator Colin Deacon discuss the limitations of Canada’s over-regulated banking industry and how to correct them at this year’s Elevate Festival in Toronto. 

Here are some highlights from their fireside chat.

Canada’s banking climate is one of the least competitive in the world 

Governmental red tape to become a bank or offer similar services prevents many new, innovative banking businesses from entering the Canadian market. 

Eberhard describes Canada’s uncompetitive banking climate through the Lerner Index, an economic measure to assess price to product, where Canada was last ranked at 0.49 in 2014.

“0.1-0.2 is a healthy banking climate; everything above 0.4 is rare and non-competitive at all. The only country I’ve seen higher than Canada is Qatar. What happened in 2009, and did anybody opt into one of the least competitive banking climates in the world? What does that mean for everyday Canadians…or the 80% of Canadians who feel their financial position has gotten worse year over year?”

A lack of competition leads to banking services that don’t serve the people

Eberhard cites a fintech colleague that provides brokerage accounts in 100 countries, but not Canada. Meaning? Canada doesn’t have a competitive banking industry. 

Economic experts reinforce time and time again that a lack of competition, or a monopoly, results in: 

  • Higher prices
  • Less efficiency
  • Rising inequality

Last month, Canada’s Department of Finance announced measures to protect Canadians from their banks. These include new mortgage guidelines, enhancing low-cost and no-cost banking options, lowering non-sufficient fund fees, and designating an external not-for-profit organization to handle complaints. 

However, Senator Deacon asserts that Canada’s uncompetitive banking industry is no different from what economists have cautioned against in the last few decades:

“How we regulate our banks…is very separate (from) challenging our banks to deliver more customer-centric services…The more protected you are as an industry, the less customer-centric you become. You will become organizational-centric; you do what is good for your business and shareholders — that’s the job of a board of directors. 

Source: PitchBook, KPMG in Canada

Open banking and fintech can make Canadian banking more customer-centric

The Canadian fintech market has been dropping since 2021, and according to KPMG’s H1 2023 report, investments have dropped down to pandemic levels. From the end of 2022 to the summer of 2023, they reported a 74% drop in investment value and a 28% drop in the number of deals. 

Related reading: Canadian fintech investment continues to fall in 2023, says KPMG

Eberhard and Deacon see fintech competition as the answer to better, more inclusive banking services:

“What we’ve got to do is force that board of directors to get more innovative and aggressive in how they serve those customer needs. And how we do it is we introduce competition through financial technology services who offer customers things that are completely different than what the traditional banking system has been offering.”

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Unlocking digital transformation for good: mesh conference lands in Toronto on December 6-7

Canada’s digital transformation and innovation event is back in Toronto on Dec 6-7.

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In a world where technology shapes the way we live and work, it’s important to harness the power of innovation to not only drive business success, but also make a positive impact on our communities. That’s the vision behind the upcoming mesh conference, set to take place in Toronto on Dec 6-7. 

And this digital transformation event is more than an innovation summit — it’s an opportunity to combine innovation with social responsibility, with proceeds benefiting Second Harvest, Canada’s largest food rescue organization and leader on perishable food redistribution.

Human-powered, tech-enabled innovation

The mesh conference is back in Toronto on December 6-7 after relaunching earlier this year in Calgary where more than 200 people met to connect, share, and inspire.

And the mesh conference is not your typical digital transformation and innovation event — it’s a platform where visionaries, innovators, and thought leaders come together to explore the intersection of technology and humanity. 

The theme for the Toronto event is “Human-powered, tech-enabled,” emphasizing the pivotal role of technology in augmenting human capabilities.

The two-day event will feature a series of inspiring talks, interactive workshops, and panel discussions that delve into the ways people who are augmented by technology and innovation can improve our world. Attendees will gain insights into the latest digital trends, emerging technologies, and strategies for achieving human-centered digital transformation.

Second Harvest
Lori Nikkel is CEO of Second Harvest. – Photo courtesy Second Harvest

Making a difference — why mesh is supporting Second Harvest

We’re in a crisis, and more people than ever are relying on food banks.

In Toronto alone, a recent study shows one in 10 people are now relying on food banks, and more than 2.5 million visits to food banks took place between April 2022 and March 2023 — a 51% increase over the year before. 

Across Canada, nearly two million Canadians accessed a food bank over the course of one month, the Food Banks Canada HungerCount 2023 report shows..

With a commitment to social responsibility and using its platform to help others, the mesh conference announced that all proceeds raised after expenses will be donated to Second Harvest. Attendees of mesh can also make a top-up donation when purchasing a ticket, and every $25 raised will provide more than 100 meals to those in need via Second Harvest.

“In the spirit of giving back, we’ve designed mesh to support those facing food insecurity and we’re thrilled to be working with Second Harvest,” says mesh conference co-founder and co-producer, Sheri Moore. “Proceeds will be donated to Second Harvest, and we’re designing our food menu with our catering team at Toben Food By Design in order to rescue the food from our event in a way that has the greatest impact for our matched charity.”

Second Harvest works with thousands of food businesses from across the supply chain, utilizing logistics and technology to reduce the amount of edible food going to waste. Its inclusive model ensures a healthy surplus of food is redirected to thousands of charities and nonprofits across the country, providing millions of Canadians experiencing food insecurity access to the nourishment they need. 

“It’s important to us that we help our community in any way and every way that we can,” says Moore. “With the return of mesh in 2023 after the pandemic, we have been overwhelmed by the support from new friends and mesh alumni alike. What better way to give back than to pay it forward to use our platform to help those in need.”

In addition to food donations, Moore says mesh is also looking at ways to take a circular approach with the help of Leaff Circular Gifting, a sustainable organization that offers eco-friendly flowers, plants, gifts, gift boxes, and immersive virtual experiences. Leaff Circular Gifting’s mission involves endorsing local enterprises such as farmers, artisans, indigenous communities, and others by incorporating them into their gift-centric platform.

mesh conference
Photo courtesy the mesh conference

Why you should attend the mesh conference in Toronto

With a focus on four threads — business, media and technology, society, and marketing — the mesh conference hosts Canadian digital transformation leaders who will meet to connect, share, and inspire others to think about changing the way we think, organize, operate and behave.

Among the many reasons innovators attend mesh:

  • The mesh conference offers cutting-edge insights: Learn from industry experts and thought leaders about the latest digital trends and technologies shaping our world.
  • The mesh conference creates unique networking opportunities: Connect with like-minded individuals, build valuable relationships, and explore potential collaborations.
  • The mesh conference delivers social impact: Make a difference by supporting Second Harvest and helping to combat food insecurity in your community.
  • The mesh conference will inspire you: Discover how technology can be a force for good and get inspired to drive positive change.
  • The mesh conference delivers practical, hands-on knowledge: Gain actionable strategies to drive digital transformation within your organization, rooted in a human-centric approach.

Get involved — join us at the mesh conference

We invite you to be part of this unique event that combines innovation, education, and social responsibility. The mesh conference takes place at The Symes December 6-7.

To secure your spot and help support Second Harvest, visit meshconference.com and register today. Don’t miss this chance to be a part of the mesh Conference, where human-powered, tech-enabled transformation meets social impact. 

See you in Toronto.

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